pump.fun by the numbers

Wonder

1. Why does a near-zero cost of entry produce such extreme asymmetry in outcomes?
2. What specific on-chain metric distinguishes a token that survives the bonding curve from one that does not?
3. How can a platform collect fees while the vast majority of its participants lose capital?

Explore

1. pump.fun launched on Solana in January 2024, offering a standardized mechanism for token creation with minimal friction. On the bonding curve, a formula sets the price, which rises as tokens are bought and falls as they are sold back. Creators deploy tokens at negligible cost, while buyers provide the initial capital. This structure lowers barriers to entry to near zero but concentrates risk entirely on participants who purchase after deployment. The platform’s architecture encourages high volume of token launches rather than quality or longevity.
2. Historical data from Dune analytics indicates that approximately 1.4% of tokens successfully ‘graduate’ from the bonding curve to a decentralized exchange pool. This figure varies by period, ranging between 0.3% and 2%. The other 98.6% or so never reach the graduation threshold (a different measure from the similar-looking Solidus figure below). These tokens remain on the curve or are abandoned, effectively becoming illiquid assets with no secondary market depth beyond the initial curve mechanics.
3. Solidus Labs’ ‘2025 Rug Pull Report’ (May 7, 2025) classified roughly 98.6% of over seven million pump.fun tokens issued between January 2024 and March 2025 as rug pulls or pump-and-dumps. This classification relies on specific transaction patterns indicating developer exits or coordinated selling. pump.fun disputed the methodology; even on the graduation figures alone, very few launches lasted.
4. A separate 2024 analysis examined 29.6 million unique wallets interacting with pump.fun tokens. Only 0.76% of these wallets realized a profit exceeding $1,000. The remaining participants either lost their initial capital or achieved negligible gains that did not offset transaction fees. This distribution mirrors lottery mechanics: a tiny fraction captures outsized returns while the majority absorb losses, with the platform retaining fees from every trade regardless of outcome.
5. The bonding curve mechanism inherently favors early buyers and creators who can exit before liquidity dries up. As supply increases on the curve, price impact rises for subsequent buyers. A token that never graduates trades only on its curve: holders can still sell back into it, but each sale lowers the price along the same formula, and once buyers stop arriving the exit is thin.
6. Traders verify token health by monitoring graduation metrics and holder concentration on explorers like Solscan. They track whether liquidity is burned or locked upon pool creation. They analyze the ratio of creator holdings to circulating supply at launch. These checks help distinguish tokens with genuine community interest from those designed for rapid extraction, though no metric eliminates the risk inherent in zero-sum trading environments.

Key facts

Exercise nine, six, three, one

Fact check

Dates, figures and claims checked against the published sources listed below.

• Solidus Labs, '2025 Rug Pull Report' (May 7, 2025)
• Dune Analytics (Hashed), pump.fun graduation analysis (2024)
• crypto.news, wallet profit analysis for pump.fun tokens (2024)